Current Trading Overview:
- • Q2 2025 revenue €620.9mm, down 6.5% yoy; H1 2025 revenue €1,205.1mm, down 6.1% yoy. EBITDA €224.1mm in Q2, down 12.4% yoy; margin 36.1% (down 250bps). H1 EBITDA €414.0mm, margin 34.4% (down 150bps). Drivers: softer construction demand in France and Nordics, adverse comp from 2024 Olympic activity, lower capital gains on fleet disposals, and still-elevated financing costs. H1 posted net loss of €30.8mm versus €4.0mm loss in H1 2024 despite cost cuts.
- • Management stated Q2 revenue was “in line with expectations” but end-markets remain weak; no external consensus provided.
Segmental breakdown:
- • Revenue Q2: France €252.1mm (-8.1% yoy), Nordics €163.3mm (-6.4%), Rest of World €205.5mm (-4.4%). EBITDA Q2: France €97.2mm (-13.3%, 38.5% margin), Nordics €48.0mm (-11.6%, 29.4%), Rest of World €78.9mm (-10.8%, 38.4%). Weakness broad-based; Iberia steadier within RoW.
Leverage (TNL) trend:
- • Net financial debt €4,021.1mm at 30-Jun-25, down €84.6mm vs 31-Dec-24 and down €37mm qoq. Company-reported LTM net debt/EBITDA 4.47x at 30-Jun-25 (4.59x a year earlier). Deleveraging driven by positive FCF and gross debt reduction, partially offset by lower EBITDA and cash balance decline.
CFO and FCF:
- • Q2 2025 Cash Flow from Operations (company definition) €121.0mm vs €134.5mm in Q2 2024. Q2 2025 FCF €34.8mm vs €50.6mm yoy, reflecting lower EBITDA and higher gross capex (€95.1mm vs €76.9mm).
- • H1 2025 CFO €205.5mm; H1 2025 FCF €80.4mm, both up vs H1 2024 CFO €243.8mm and FCF €48.1mm due to tighter capex and working-capital improvements; note H1 IFRS cash from operating activities was €263.1mm.
Liquidity:
- • Cash and cash equivalents €106.4mm at 30-Jun-25; €345mm five-year RCF fully undrawn; other marketable securities within cash totaled €40.9mm. Net debt reduced by €37mm in Q2; nonetheless absolute cash is thin for scale and seasonality.
Significant corporate actions/news:
- • Feb 18, 2025: €500mm Senior Secured Notes due 2030; used with cash to redeem €450mm 2026 SSNs and €231mm 2027 SSNs. Jul 30, 2025: €540mm Senior Secured Notes due 2031; redeemed remaining 2029 notes portion, extending maturities and moving to all-SSN structure. May 12, 2025: sale of Pronto Rental (Colombia). May 16, 2025: acquired remaining 10% of Loxam Access Srl.
Guidance:
- • 2025: disciplined capex backloaded to H2, aim to maintain positive FCF amid delayed European construction recovery; diversification into infrastructure and growth niches. Risks: deeper/longer slump in resi, margin pressure in Middle East, FX volatility, and execution on cost base rationalization.
Clean EBITDA and leverage (method and output):
- • Clean EBITDA logic: start with reported EBITDA, deduct IFRS‑16 rent uplift to reflect cash rents, and exclude gains on asset disposals (these are not in EBITDA). Q2 2025 Clean EBITDA = €224.1mm − €38.3mm = €185.8mm. H1 2025 Clean EBITDA = €414.0mm − €76.8mm = €337.2mm.
- • Clean leverage: LTM reported EBITDA €899mm gives TNL/EBITDA 4.47x. Adjusting for at least the known H1 2025 IFRS‑16 rent impact implies Clean LTM EBITDA ≤ €822.2mm and TNL/Clean EBITDA ≥ 4.89x. True clean leverage is therefore at least mid-to-high 4x.
Indicative rating view:
- • On a clean, cash-rent basis with TNL ≥ 4.9x and cyclical end-market exposure, metrics align with Ba2–Ba3 (BB to BB−) under Moody’s/S&P grids. Liquidity is adequate but reliant on market access and the undrawn RCF; governance and financial policy appear disciplined post-refinancing.
Conclusion:
- • Q2 showed resilient but weakening margins, positive FCF and modest deleveraging, set against soft demand, thin cash and elevated leverage; execution on capex discipline and cost control remains critical for H2.